Rules to Follow When Filling Out Next Year's NCAA Tournament Bracket

This year, for the first time since I started filling out NCAA Tournament brackets in high school, I finally came out ahead financially in pools. I won one pool, tied for third in another, and placed fourth in a third pool, although I picked the second most games correctly in that pool. And that was with a bracket that only got one Final Four team (Connecticut) correct and zero championship game teams right. My success this year may speak as much to the unpredictability of this year's tournament as it did my own expertise. I did better in the early round games than usual, but not as well in the later games, which are weighted the most in most pools.

Last year, I was a West Virginia win over Duke in the Final Four away from hundreds of dollars. A few years ago, I correctly picked the final, but the wrong team won.

Now some of you are probably thinking one of two things: that I am not an expert on filling out a bracket and that I have a gambling problem. The former is probably true, the latter not so much. But joining a pool or two definitely adds enjoyment (and maybe some anxiety) about the best sporting event of the year. And my brackets have been trending upwards--last year, I was a West Virginia win over Duke in the Final Four away from hundreds of dollars to go along with a few years ago when I correctly picked the final but the wrong team won--so hopefully I'm not jinxing myself by writing this post. Here are a few loose rules I follow when filling out a bracket:

1. Don’t obsess over it. During the regular season, I watch my team—Notre Dame—and my team only. I check scores for other big games on ESPN.com. Conference Tournament week, I watch as much as possible to see who’s peaking and who is falling, which key players are injured, etc. Beyond that, I do not do much “research.” I heard Skip Bayless lamenting over how much research he did on Arizona in deciding they could not beat Duke. But then the Wildcats reeled off probably the most impressive half of basketball in the tournament and blew out the Blue Devils. You can’t explain that. Where the heck did Virginia Commonwealth come from?!! Jay Bilas didn't even think they belonged in the tournament. If things went like they were supposed to, number one seeds would always end up in the Final Four. That certainly happens, but many times it doesn’t. This year, none of the number one seeds advanced to the Final Four.


2. Pay attention to trends and injuries, especially late in the season. I should have noticed that Notre Dame trended downward when they blew a sixteen-point lead and lost against Louisville in the Big East Tournament. Ben Hansbarough did not finish playing his best basketball. As a team, they peaked probably one game before that against Cincinnati. This should have tipped me off about the tournament, but I was in denial. Another great example of this is Villanova. They started off the season great, but finished terribly. Naturally, they were bounced early in the tournament. North Carolina and Butler were the opposite: rough starts, good finishes. A conference tournament championship does not automatically mean a deep tournament run, but it does indicate that a team is playing well at the end of the season. Case in point: Connecticut from this season.

3. Know some tournament history and coach records of success and failure. Tom Izzo (Michigan State), Mike Kryzewski (Duke), and Bob Huggins (West Virginia), Billy Donovan (Florida), John Calipari (Kentucky), and Jim Boeheim (Syracuse) often advance deep into the tournament. Bo Ryan (Wisconsin) and Lorenzo Romar (Washington) seem to be pretty perennially Sweet 16s, which is no small feat. For whatever reasons, Rick Barnes (Texas), Jamie Dixon (Pittsburgh), and Mike Brey (Notre Dame) do not have good records in the tournament. The new rising star is, of course, Brad Stevens (Butler). Coaches like Rick Pitino (Louisville), Mark Few (Gonzaga), Bill Self (Kansas), Roy Williams (North Carolina), Tubby Smith (Minnesota), Leonard Hamilton (Florida State), Matt Painter (Purdue), and Jay Wright (Villanova) are a little more difficult to predict because it has gone both ways: deep runs and early exits.

4. Respect both talent and experience; both can win in the tournament. In regards to young talent, think Ohio State and Kentucky; as for experience, think Butler and Florida.

5. Pay attention to match-ups. What styles do various teams play? Do they get out and run a lot? Do they rebound well? How tell are they? Do they rely on one star are on balanced scoring? Do they play slower, low possession games? Do they play man or zone defense? Do they win close games or blowouts? I don’t pick a champion until I see a bracket. With the exception of this year, I almost always get one of the two teams in the championship correct. One example of this is that Arizona matched up better this season with Duke than they did with Connecticut. That does not mean Connecticut was the best of the three teams; they probably weren’t. Another example is how brilliant VCU looked against Kansas, who was willing to play the high tempo game, but how flawed they looked against Butler, who played a low possession game with great defense.

6. Pick some upsets, but don’t go crazy. What makes this tournament so fun is the Cinderella stories, but the higher seed still wins most of the time. Balance is good. Don’t pick all number one seeds to the Final Four, but pick at least one or two.

7. Make your team lose early. You will be more objective this way. This rule came from this year's error for me. Notre Dame had a deceptively successful season, which got me all excited, so I predicted them all the way to the championship game. They lost badly in the second round to a strong defensive team in Florida State. For the rest of my life, when the Irish are in the tourney, they will lose early in my bracket. This way, if they ruin my bracket, it will be a good thing, not a bad thing.

8. Most of all, go with your gut. Malcolm Gladwell has written an excellent book about this. It was my gut that told me last year that Butler was a Final Four team last year and that they would beat Pittsburgh this year en route to the Sweet 16. They exceeded my expectations both times. Another instinct told me that Notre Dame would lose early this year. I ignored that instinct because I didn’t want to believe it. Now, admittedly, sometimes our instincts will fail us. Instinct told me, against the odds, that Princeton would beat Kentucky. Instead, the Tigers lost by two on a buzzer beater, and the Wildcats advanced all the way to the Final Four, wrecking my bracket one game at a time.